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TREB Market Analysis- January 2018

21 February, 2018

The winter blues have hit the real estate market just as it has hit the streets of our busy city. The Toronto Real Estate Board’s President, Tim Syrianos has released the Greater Toronto Area REALTOR® report for January 2018 with a downturn in sales over last January. A total of 8,585 listings were registered on TREB® last month over the 7,314 registered January 2017- this represents a 17.4 per cent increase from year to year. Though this month has starting off at a decline, this is not to pose a threat to weary purchasers for two reasons…

  1. The psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan begins to wear off
  2. 2017 was an unprecedented record-setting year for Toronto Real Estate

Though detached home prices over the span of three years have experienced sporadic patterns, the condominium market has presented itself with a general increase in pricing. Sales for detached homes in the ‘416’ have decreased year-over-year at -18.3% with the ‘905’ region at -28%. This has had a ripple effect on the average pricing as the ‘416’ region’s prices drop at -3.9% with the ‘905’ at a -12% decrease in average price. However, MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark increase by 5.2 per cent year-over-year…

TREB® relates this growth directly to the condominium apartment sales with double-digit growth over the single-family segment. This also weighs the 4.1 per cent decrease in home prices accounting for the detached homes. The average selling price in the City of Toronto has increased in all other segments excluding detached. The ‘416’ experienced an increase in condominium prices at 15.1% over 2017 while the ‘905’ trailed behind at an 11.3% increase.
The Toronto real estate market will undergo a generational shift in residential desires as the millennia’s begin to finally move out of their parent’s home and transition into first time home buyers- causing a new wave of buyers. As we’ve witnessed an unprecedented surge in condominium sales over the recent years, we are only expected to continue with this trend. Condos have become the new starter home for the first time homebuyer as they adhere to the urban lifestyle demands that millennia’s wish to attain. Parents have followed this trend as they look to downsize in larger condominium units while the smaller unit sizes pose more affordable for the younger generations on budgetary constraints.

*Condominium market (1970s) with 11,697 residential units built*

*Condominium market (2010s) with 109,497 residential units built*

“It is not surprising that home prices in some market segments were flat to down in January compared to last year. At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low inventory in the marketplace. It is likely that market conditions will support a return to positive price growth for many home types in the second half of 2018. The condominium apartment segments will be the driver of this price growth,”- Jason Mercer- TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

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